ISIS has evolved into a global phenomenon. This is not
only to be said because of terrorist attacks in different countries all around
the globe, committed in the name of the self proclaimed state in Iraq and Syria,
but also due to the fact that mostly young Muslims (their declaration of belief
will be of importance for this article) from a wide variety of countries have
yet travelled to what they think is the latest Khilafa (caliphate).
Myriads of reports have been written on this, regularly
publishing the numbers of fighters from different country who fulfilled their
wish to emigrate into ISIS-held territory; and they are not only coming from
Muslim majority countries or those countries which are well known for hosting a
particularly pious way of Islam such as Saudi-Arabia. Many of those reports,
lists and tables also show the estimated number of people who have left Europe
for the life under the black flag and the percentage of emigrants compared to
the whole population of a country, e.g. here,
here and here.
But there is one important fact that the authors of
these lists above failed to mention: the Muslim factor. To join ISIS, you don’t
have to be incredibly smart or strong or skilled in a certain job. The only
thing you have to be is Muslim; Sunni Muslim to be fairly accurate. This is why
these tables so often (probably unintentionally) falsify the results given.
Breaking it down, these calculations include everybody from steadfast Sunni
Islamists to Atheists and even devout Catholic monks. We certainly agree on the
fact that not all of them are equally likely to become ISIS
inhabitants/members.
Let us go into details. The results of this
calculations always look quite similar: a country with quite a small population
and/or a high amount of Jihadis originating from it is listed on one of the top
places of ‘terror-exporting nations’. The following list will be used as a quick
example.
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| Source: Guy van Vlierden |
As many may have already expected, Jordan, Tunisia and
Saudi-Arabia comprise the top 3 of the list. Depending on which intelligence
report is being used, also the Maldives tend to be ranked on one of the first
positions as well. All four countries (like many other on the list) have in
common that their over-all-population tends to be close to 100% Sunni. That
makes calculating Number of Jihadis :
population in million = Number of Jihadis per million inhabitants little
prone to failure. However, if the religious preconditions vary, it gets more complicated.
I will explain this through the example of Belgium.
Belgium ranks on #10 on the list with about 52 Jihadis
per 1m Belgians, making it the first European country on the list. This number
comes from dividing the Belgians known to have emigrated to the Islamic State (the author calculated with 550 emigrants)
by 11; Belgium has an overall population
of about 11m people.
But this is what can be called misleading. Belgium is
home to a relatively high number of Muslims. Roughly 400.000 Belgians, regardless
of their ethnicity, follow Islam of which 98% belong to the Sunni branch and
just those are the ones who could actively join the ranks of ISIS. So rather
than dividing 550 by 11, one should multiply 550 with 2.5! This is how you actually
arrive at the total of Jihadis per 1m Muslim Belgians or at least come
considerably close to it. It is also a number you can actually work with as it
is easily comparable with the result from countries with overwhelming Sunni
Muslim majority. I made a table containing some 20 countries which one can
consider to be of importance for highlighting the more or less constant flow of
foreign fighters into ISIS-held territory:
The result, however, is completely different from the
initial one: per 1m Muslims living in Belgium about 1375 leave for the sake of Jihad. In other words: nearly 0.15% of the Belgian Muslims have been / are on their personal Hijrah (emigration) to the warzone. The revised calculation does
not only show that Belgium ‘overtakes’ Jordan, Tunisia and Saudi-Arabia on the
list but also that it is a distant #2 to Finland which has lost almost two
times more of its Muslim community to ISIS than Belgium. However, it certainly
is an alarming quantity which does not even include the radicalised persons not
willing or not able to go abroad.
All in all, these alternative comparisons show that
Muslim societies in the Western world, and especially in Europe, carry quite a
high potential of radicalisation. A fact which can be easily overlooked. Statistics
originally should help to disclose this; a task they don’t really fulfil in the
cases cited above.
PLEASE NOTE:
All these calculations, lists, tables etc. have in
common that they are not hosting complete figures. Numbers, be it of the
population and even more of those who have left for the Khilafa, are to a certain extend a matter of speculation which has
direct influence on per-capita-calculations. The same goes for the number of
Muslims, because some countries like France do not ask their people for
information about religion. Others, especially Sweden, Denmark, Austria and
Germany, house an unknown, but considerably higher number of Sunnis since the migrant crisis has fully broken out in September 2015. This is why the calculation
provided above should not be seen as in any way set or the given numbers as the
ultimate truth. Merely, its purpose is to reveal a significant error in the
previous articles’ logic and to give an impression of which numbers are at
least closer to the real situation.
